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AN ILLUSORY WINNER

Vito had his usual giant stack of chips in front of him that day, and as usual I heard a couple of comments from players who were perplexed, sure that he won consistently, but puzzled about how he did it. As usual they were wrong. The player I’m calling Vito is someone I used to see frequently in a couple of different Southern California card rooms.

He had a few well developed poker skills. He was aggressive and deceptive, capable of exerting a lot of pressure with semi-bluffs. But he made serious mistakes. He bluffed and semi-bluffed far too frequently in most games. In addition, he played way too many hands, often overplaying them before the flop. It was probably his looseness that nagged at other player when they struggled with their perception that he was a winning poker player.

They knew that winners weren’t supposed to play that many hands, yet Vito did and seemed to win consistently so much so that these other players were even a little intimidated by him. They figured he must know something they didn’t. He did; he knew that he was not a winner. A player like Vito is unlikely to keep records of his play. So at times he may have been able to convince himself as he did others that he was winning. After all, he did play well enough that he shouldn’t lose as heavily as a truly weak player.

That combined with a playing style that created big fluctuations led him to have some big wins and, no doubt, some extended winning streaks. So he might sometimes have deceived himself into believing that he’d just had some terrible luck in the past, but was back on track and poker winning as he should. However, he knew he hadn’t won much, and if he was honest with himself he had to admit that he was not winning at all.

(He supported himself outside of poker, and had to realize that his overall cash flow has not improved.) not surprisingly, I don’t see Vito around anymore.

KNOWLEDGE FIGHTS ILLUSIONS

My purpose in this essay is not to disparage Vito or others like him. It is to see what can be learned from the other players’ perceptions of him. (Vito is far from unique in the poker world.) I believed that their seeing him as a winner, and being intimidated by him, points to an important lesson:

Education in poker theory reduces one’s susceptibility to illusions which can interfere with good play. That is, knowledge of poker theory not only helps you determine the right plays, but helps you avoid misperceptions which can influence your judgment as you play. The fact is that most players who were familiar with Vito were deceived by the illusion that he was a winning player.

Yet you must perceive accurately how well your opponent plays and what mistakes he makes in order to play him correctly. Because these players misperceived Vito’s play, failing to see his errors, they were not in a position to play optimally against him. if they did not see that he bluffed too much, they would not appreciate the benefits of letting him bet their hands for them more often. If they did not see that he raised too loosely before the flop, often with hands that he should not even have played, they would not think to reraise him sometimes with certain hands which they would fold if faced with a raise from a solid player.

To avoid buying into illusions as Vito’s opponents did, we might first look at how they arise. There are three elements which seem clearly to have contributed to the illusion that Vito was a winner. First, to whatever reasons, Vito went to some lengths to

Perhaps you have run across similar players who seem to win despite violating numerous fundamental principles of sound poker play. Be assured that when they do this, they do not beat the game. Be aware also that unless you are a very knowledgeable player you may not always be able to recognize what a top player is or is not doing correctly. You should not automatically assume someone is “Vito” just because he seems to do some things incorrectly.

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