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SUBTLE LOSSES OF JUDGMENT: PART I
This is topic to which few poker writers have devoted much attention, but which is of critical importance to players who want to do well at poker. Some years ago, not long after moving up from $6-$12 to $10-$20 holdem, I mentioned to a friend who was (and still is) one of the steadiest professional players I have known, that I’d had a bad month.
He responded, “Well, there are times when God couldn’t win, but more often than not, when you look at a bad month, it turns out you had something to do with it.” For most players I am sure that his observation is correct. This essay is about what I believe is frequently going on when an otherwise good player has “something to do with it”. Consider the decisions made over the course of a few poker sessions. For a knowledgeable, experienced player, most are fairly straight forward if not automatic. You fold a lot of hands without a second thought, you make some obvious folds on the flop or turne, you bet some hands straight through with out having to deal with anything very complex or unclear.
Of course not all of poker is that easy. As you know, within those few sessions you will inevitably be confronted with difficult decisions are not the only ones that present problems; for among the normally simple, straight forward decisions lies a class of decisions with a special character. If you are a very good player these are relatively easy, clear decisions as long as your judgment is unimpaired. However, they are instances in which, if anything interferes with your judgment, it is easy to rationalize the wrong decision. Thus, any interference with the application of sound judgment affects not only difficult decisions, but these routine, easily rationalized decisions as well.
Probably the best known interference is frank “tilt” or “steaming”, but I suspect even more damaging to the long term results of most better players are more subtle phenomena (including subtle varieties of tilt) which diminish good judgment at the poker tabel. I submit that a large percentage of players who have learned enough to play quite well damage their results by occasionally, subtly, and often unknowingly, making their playing decisions in the absence of their normal best judgment. They sometimes play with this subtly impaired judgment over many playing sessions, rationalizing incorrect decisions and severely cutting into their profits.
Making Profitable Decisions
Let’s look at two key requirements for making profitable decisions in poker:
1.You must have a good knowledge of poker.
2.You must exercise consistently good judgment in your poker decisions.
Obviously, if you don’t have a reasonable understanding of poker strategy, at least on an “intuitive” level, you will not be able to play well. You also need good judgment. An understanding of theory enables you to identify the
elements you need to consider to make sound poker decisions. But upon considering those elements you must frequently exercise judgment to make the best possible decision.
Here’s simple example. Say you hold a strong hand and are considering whether to bet or to check-raise an opponent on the river in holdem. First, your knowledge of poker theory allows you do identify these two options as your best choices. Then, in assessing the merits of each, it further tells you that you need to consider the likelihood your opponent will call if you bet, the chance he will bet if you check, and the subsequent chance he will call if you raise. To assess these final three variables you must rely not so much on your knowledge of theory, but on your own best guesses, and your judgment about this player concerning each of those questions. Good judgment in poker derives in part from innate talent, personality type, and emotional maturity. To a large extent you can also develop it through the interplay of experience and continual analysis of your play. In time your efforts pay off in more reliable judgment for most situations. A variety of factors can, however, interfere with judgment in subtle ways, nudging you just outside of the zone of correct play.
Enemies of Sound Judgment
A number of factors, apart from obvious tilt, may interfere with a player’s judgment enough to do serious damage to his poker results. At some risk of over simplifying the phenomenon, I suggest that the following ideas capture much of what usually happens. Certainly elements other than those I will list can impair judgment in poker. Here are three which I believe are especially important. These ideas derive from analysis of my own experience as well as discussion with and observations of skilled players exhibiting this problem.
On Tilt: Part II – The Professional Attitude / Subtle Losses of Judgment: Part I
Subtle Losses of Judgment: Part II / A Poker Player in Therapy