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THOUGHTS ON THE EFFECTS OF THE POKER LITERATURE
Serious poker players sometimes lament the publication of poker books and articles. Writing that offers sound advice, they reason, cannot be good for the games. Certainly good written information will add to the skills of at least some players, but is that all there is to it? Might there be other factors to consider?
I believe the question of how the poker literature affects the games is more complex than the simple reasoning typically offered by players who would prefer that high quality poker information be kept secret. First, what is the basis of the idea that the poker literature makes the games tougher? This belief is simply a common sense conclusion based on a perceived correlation. Players who were playing through the period before and after the publication of most of the major instructional texts (notably the Two Plus Two books) observed that many games gradually became tougher. They attribute this to the books. This may well be an example of the mistake, well known in science, of equating correlation with causation. A player sees that as “A” occurred (good books grew in number), “B” occurred (games got tougher).He figures A caused B, but he fails to consider either that A and B may have appeared together only coincidentally, or that a third factor, “C, ” may have been responsible for both A and B.
A Third Factor?
Is there a third factor which may be responsible for both the publication of books and the toughening of games? The publication of many of the better poker has corresponded with the boom in legalized gambling which began around the late 80s, and continues today. This boom may in fact have been the “third factor.” It clearly caused the publication of books,in the sense that it provided a bigger market for them, but how could it have made the games tougher? The answer is that it brought greater social acceptance of public poker, which led to many more players entering the game from backgrounds previously uncommon for serious poker players.
As compared to 20 years ago, a greater proportion of players today are highly educated, often from scientific or other analytical backgrounds. I would venture to say that it has been the gambling boom’s bringing in these new types of players, more than books and articles, which has toughened up the games. It is true, however, that these are also the kinds of players most likely to study books in an effort to learn the game. So I combination of these academically oriented players and the availability of books and articles which has affected the games. Yet even without materials to study, these are the kinds of players who would come to the game with more training in analytical thinking, and who would make more systematic efforts to “solve the puzzle that is poker.”
Thus I would argue that their presence alone would have made the games tougher. I would speculate as well that there is another phenomenon, specific to Las Vegas, which has added fuel to the belief that the games have become tougher. This too is a result of the gambling boom. Vegas players noticing the toughening of games may simply be seeing the difference between yesterday’s “tourists” and today’s. Today’s often come from areas where they frequent their own legal public cardrooms. So these people are experienced players, much less “clueless” than the classic tourist who came to Vegas from somewhere with no legal gambling, and sat down to donate for a while in a casino’s poker room. It’s like having more “locals” come into the game rather than only fun-seeking tourists.
Fear Not the Books
What, then, are the direct effects of books and articles? We can only speculate on this topic. No one has conducted a formal study of the effects on the games or the players. There is only conjecture. It can be intelligent and informed by compelling observations, but cannot identify all the effects with any real confidence. That said, there is no question that some very good players have acquired much of their ability through serious study of the poker literature. Note that I said “serious study.” A quick reading of a poker text, no matter how good it is, will not turn a bad player without exceptional intelligence or talent for the game, into a very good one.
On the other hand, making a serious project of studying poker from books, combined with much play and independent analysis of the game, just might do it. Add some personal instruction from an expert, and the chance of success rises still further,but only a few players are willing to make this kind of effort. Moreover, some of them, though willing, so lack the temperament or ability to employ the kinds of thinking used in poker that they simply can’t break through to real success. In Poker, Gaming & Life, David Sklansky estimates that of those players who try without studying to become solid winners (making good money in middle limit games, for example), no more than one percent succeed.
Of those who do study diligently, he believes about 10 percent succeed. (* Although most certainly do much better than if they hadn’t read them. lose quickly and give up the game.) Thus, if we accept Sklansky’s numbers – which do seem reasonable books make a big relative difference. Still, they clearly offer nothing close to a guarantee of success. What about other effects of books and articles? I contend that they have some effects which should be welcomed by serious beginners information to help them organize their thinking. This may a give a fighting chance to some who would otherwise there are other effects too. They are the effects of which a poker writer is unlikely to feel particularly proud, but which nevertheless benefit the strong winning poker player worried about his own bottom line.